So I wrote a letter to the SSA concerning a few issues- I wanted to know births between 1940 - 2010, to try and get a gage for when SSA will come under the most pressure financially. I wanted to know when the Cover-to-Benefit ratio (amount of people paying in to system to cover each one drawing benefits). I wanted to know when SSA would take in less money than they pay out.
Boy- did I get some answers...
Birth rates calculated by the National Center of Health Services (NCHS) as the primary data source. Here is the line in case you would like, literally, volumes of information about birth rates.
The National Vital Statistics Report Volume 60, Number 1 has this info.
These only account for the 50 states - "not for the territories and outside areas", which also got me to thinking- do we cover people in those territories as if they were in the US and "entitled"? More at a later date on that as I pursue the truth.
The Cover-to-Benefit ratio goes to about 2-to1 by about 2020, from its current rate of 2.9 to 1. That being said- we will have 2 people paying in for every person getting benefits. My personal belief is it will happen sooner as the estimates they use are fairly advantageous. The DI(disability) rate of SSA benefits has been soaring recently as people go onto a "permanent" unemployment insurance of a different type.
When do we start taking in less than we pay out... Oh, that happens already. Seriously. We already pay out more than we take in- unless you include the interest on the Trust Fund. But by the year 2023, we will start paying out more than we take in including both revenues and interest from the Trust Fund. And each year after that, we will draw down our assets to zero in the year 2036.
Only we can make a difference, and only in the near term- with each tick of the financial clock our future becomes more and more in doubt.
So ask yourself a core question- What are you willing to give up and what will you ask of those around you to make our future more secure? THAT will get you ready for what is to come, and help set the table for the changes we will need to make.