Everyone is so focused on the Presidential race, they aren't looking at how the Senate matches up- so here we go.
There are 33 seats up for election/re-election. Of those, 15 are truly in play to some degree.
Maine- Independent leading strongly now- will become the 3rd Independent Senator (after CT and VT). This replaces a Republican, so minus one for the R team.
Nebraska is going Republican from Democrat- so the score is back to ALL-EVEN.
North Dakota is going Republican from Democrat- so plus one for the R team.
Montana also going Republican from Democrat- so plus two for Republicans.
Missouri is going Republican from Democrat- assuming Akins recent mishap doesn't sabotage his race. This makes Republicans up three seats overall.
Wisconsin also going Republican from Democrat- taking the gain to Four seats overall.
Massachusetts is going Democrat from Republican- but by a very small margin. Less than 1% lead means this race is still very much in play- the question for Romney is is this worth campaigning given that he can not win the state. Do you spend equity for the Senate seat, or simply walk away and roll the dice. If it goes Democrat- then the total is plus Three for Republicans.
Florida will stay Democrat unless something re-energizes the Mack vote in Florida. Given that Florida is a necessary Romney state and very much in play, it wouldn't surprise me to see a push that benefits Mack as well.
Virginia will stay Democrat- but like Mass- it is very close and the race could go either way. THIS is definitely worth Romney's time as he needs the state to win election. This would be a very easy and significant pick up for Republicans.
Nevada will stay Republican.
Ohio will stay Democrat- but might be turned by a national push.
New Mexico will stay Democrat.
Michigan will stay Democrat.
Hawaii will definitely stay Democrat.
Indiana is looking Republican for now, but will need some support to bring it home.
At the end of the day, it is plus 3 for Republicans.
Republicans would have 50 seats, Democrats 47, and Independents 3. ALL Independents are expected to vote Democrat for the main part, but would bounce from each side of the aisle depending on the issue.
This would mean the Vice President would have the deciding vote - which means the Presidential race comes in to play as well.
For the next 80 days or so, the main message and support needs to go to 5 states- Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and Colorado.
Florida for Presidential race, but would also impact the Senate race.
Virginia both for Presidential and Senate races.
Ohio also for both Presidential and Senate races.
Indiana for the Senate seat.
Colorado for the Presidential race.
And as we are talking SENATE 2012 today, the race comes down to 3 states which will hinge the national balance of legislation for the next 4 years. It will also determine who holds majority, and through that controls the calendar and control of what comes to vote in the Senate.
100 seats, 50 states, 80 days.... and 3 seats are all the difference in the World. Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana control the fate of the US senate.
Will you show up and vote in the single most important election of your lifetime??
November 6th- BE THERE!